Gulf disturbance

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical depression or tropical storm this week.

The disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico is slowly getting stronger and will be the first tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Monday.

Now called Potential Tropical Cyclone 1, the system had sustained winds of 40 mph at 4 p.m. Monday, the NHC said. It is in the Bay of Campeche and is currently moving north northwest at 7 mph.?

The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch for the Texas coast, from Port O'Connor south to the mouth of the Rio Grande. Mexico has also issued a tropical storm watch from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Roca de Catan.?

More warnings or advisories are possible Tuesday, the NHC said.?

Here's what you need to know:?

Where will the storm make landfall?

The system will become Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday, forecasters said.?

A "cone of uncertainty" forecast has not been released and it's too soon to predict landfall, but it will be somewhere along the western Gulf Coast after the disturbance makes a west northwestern turn.?

How big is the disturbance?

Forecasters said the disturbance is "quite large with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 290 miles to the northeast of the center."

How will it affect Texas & Mexico?

Parts of Mexico South Texas could see 5 to 10 inches of rain from the system, forecasters said Monday afternoon. Up to 15 inches of rain is possible in some areas.?

Flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, is likely. Mudslides are also possible in northeast Mexico.

What about storm surge??

The system will bring tide flooding and dangerous storm surge to normally-dry areas, the NHC said.

Here's a look at potential storm surge by city:

  • Sargent to Sabine Pass, Texas: 2 to 4 feet
  • Galveston Bay: 2 to 4 feet
  • Sabine Pass to Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana: 1 to 3 feet

Is Louisiana at risk?

The system is not expected to make landfall or directly impact Louisiana, but the southern part of the state will see loose effects from the disturbance, including coastal flooding and heavy rainfall through Wednesday. This includes the New Orleans metro.

Baton Rouge and Lafayette area also at risk of severe weather and heavy rains.

When is the next update??

The NHC will release its next discussion on the disturbance at 10 p.m. Monday. A tropics update will come three hours earlier, at 7 p.m.

 

Email Justin Mitchell at justin.mitchell@theadvocate.com