WASHINGTON – Though many votes still need counting, more signs Thursday indicated Republicans would maintain their majority in the U.S. House, which means the chamber’s two top leaders will continue to be from Louisiana for the next two years.
This time, however, House Speaker Mike Johnson, of Benton, and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, of Jefferson, likely will lead a House that is part of a unified government. Already, come January, Republicans will?control the levers of power in the Senate, occupy the White House and and hold a 6-3 majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Johnson and Scalise still must win a GOP leadership election scheduled for next week. Both sent letters to their Republican colleagues Wednesday night announcing their intention to run for the same top two spots in the 119th Congress, which will open in January. They, so far, face no GOP challengers.
“As we have planned and expected, the latest data indicates that we will also hold — and likely grow — our Republican majority in the House ...,” Johnson wrote. “The mandate that has been delivered shows that a majority of Americans are eager for secure borders, lower costs, peace through strength, and a return to common sense. With unified Republican government, if we meet this historic moment together, the next two years can result in the most consequential Congress of the modern era.”
First Republicans need to win at least 218 of 435 seats in the House. Ballot counting continued Thursday in several states for about 35 seats, 23 of which are toss-up contests. That could take several more days.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies of New York, the top Democrat in that chamber, on Thursday afternoon urged caution before declaring which party would take the majority.
“It has yet to be decided who will control the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear,” Jeffries said in a statement.
He said his party hopes to pick up Democratic representatives in those states and flip GOP seats in Democratic-leaning southern California districts.
But most prognosticators agree that the Republicans are solidly on track to win control. And Scalise and Johnson are in a position to claim some credit for that.
Safe from formidable opponents in their home districts, both Johnson and Scalise spent most of their time campaigning around the country for Republican incumbents and candidates.
Johnson toured 75 cities in 24 states during October and November – 260 events across 40 states during the past year. He said that while on the campaign trail he perceived a shift, particularly among some Hispanic and African Americans, towards Republican stands on issues.
Scalise had an equally hectic schedule, traveling to 36 states, 112 cities and 153 districts, “standing alongside many of you to ensure our team had the necessary resources to win,” he wrote GOP colleagues.
Only a third of the senators, who serve six-year terms, were on the ballot Tuesday. Republicans have already picked up the Senate seats needed to take the majority in the 100-seat upper chamber.
In the House, Democrats elected members from newly created Black majority districts in Alabama and Louisiana that had been represented by Republicans. State Sen. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, won a seat in Congress without the need for a runoff.
But those redistricting results were offset in North Carolina by three congressional seats that were drawn to favor GOP candidates.
Democrats flipped at least two GOP-held seats in New York but were looking for more and didn’t succeed. Republicans targeted but failed to pick off a Democratic seat in Virginia and another in North Carolina.
Given the gains in some races, handicappers generally are giving the GOP high odds of prevailing.
Decision Desk HQ’s Thursday evening report gave Republicans an 85% chance of winning the majority, predicting Republicans will hold 221 seats and Democrats will have 214 when the counting is done. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter reported Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s sweep of swing states “brings a likely GOP trifecta to Washington.”
The New York Times, which is tracking the ballot count in real time, noted Thursday evening that Democrats need to win 15 seats in competitive races for a majority and Republicans need to win eight, provided both parties win in districts they’re supposed to win.
Johnson said Wednesday night on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle” that he thinks the GOP will grow its majority.
"We're going to have enough numbers to run the agenda through the House and the Senate, and President Trump is going to be a transformational president,” he said.
Johnson and Scalise are acting as if a GOP majority is already fact. They are moving on an aggressive agenda of legislation for the first 100 days of 2025.?
“Everybody is fed up about the cost of living, the rising crime rates, the wide open border and the weakness on the world stage, and we have plans to fix all of that, beginning on day one,” Johnson said.
Both Johnson and Scalise say Trump will issue an executive order closing the southern border, but Congress needs to follow with legislation.
The GOP House passed a bill that restricted immigration and another that lowered regulations on oil-and-gas production. Neither measure received a hearing in the Democratic-majority Senate and both faced veto threats by President Joe Biden.
That legislation, which will have to be launched again in January, is expected to have an easier route to become law with Republicans in charge at every step.
Scalise said Republican members and their staffs already are drafting bills and calculating their costs so the House can start work immediately come January.
"We are coordinating with our Senate partners on our House Republican priorities," he added. "Soon we will begin listening sessions to incorporate the diverse views of members.”
Scalise wrote his GOP colleagues that the House would focus on procedures to repeal Biden administration regulations and more easily approve spending measures.
The agenda includes bills to bolster the southern border with a wall, detection technology and manpower; to mandate oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and on public lands, including Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; to renew Trump’s tax cuts that expire in 2025; and to repeal parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included money for projects to address global warning.